Death Toll in Gaza

How many innocent civilians were verified as being killed and how many died of natural causes in Gaza these past two years?

Determining the exact number of innocent civilians killed in Gaza over the past two years (which primarily covers the ongoing war that began on October 7, 2023) is highly complex and depends on the specific source, methodology, and definition of "innocent civilian."

The request for verified numbers of "innocent civilians" killed and those who died of "natural causes" in Gaza over the past two years (predominantly the period since the October 7, 2023 war began) highlights one of the most contentious aspects of casualty reporting, as definitive, independently verified counts are not currently possible for the entire period.

The most commonly cited figures for total Palestinian deaths come from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH), which is run by the Hamas terrorist organization - controlled government. 

So how trust worthy are these figures generally used by the UN and other international bodies?

The consensus among major international organizations and neutral analysts is as follows:

The total figure of dead bodies reported by the MoH is likely an accurate baseline for the number of trauma deaths. It represents a massive loss of life that most sources believe is either correct or an undercount.

The civilian-to-combatant ratio and the claim that a specific high percentage are women and children is the least trustworthy aspect of the MoH's reporting. This breakdown is often politically motivated and has been shown to be inconsistent with the MoH's own detailed lists.

In short, the raw number is generally considered plausible, but the demographic breakdown requires external, independent analysis (which often involves comparing the ages and genders of the identified dead to the general population) to determine the actual civilian toll.

Here is a breakdown based on the available data from international organizations, academic studies, and reporting:

1. Verified Innocent Civilian Deaths (Trauma-Related)

There is no single, universally agreed-upon, and fully verified total number of innocent civilian deaths due to direct trauma (strikes, gunfire) for the entire conflict period (Oct. 2023 – Dec. 2025). The difficulty lies in independently verifying the combatant status of every adult male killed.

The most widely cited figures come from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH), run by Hamas, but these require external analysis to determine the civilian breakdown.

Conclusion on Verification: While the exact number of "innocent civilians" cannot be precisely verified, multiple independent and internal analyses (including some citing classified Israeli data) consistently show that the civilian proportion of the total trauma deaths is extremely high, likely between 75% and 85%.

2. Deaths from Natural Causes (Indirect Deaths)

The number of people dying from indirect causes—often referred to as non-trauma-related deaths or excess deaths—is rapidly growing and is not fully included in the main MoH casualty figures.

Estimated Figures for Indirect Deaths:

Famine/Malnutrition: 

As of late 2025, reports suggest thousands of people have died from complications related to severe malnutrition, dehydration, and lack of treatment, with figures of 10,000+ cited in some reports. The UN has highlighted that deaths of children due to starvation shame the world and demand urgent action.

Disease and Health Collapse: 

The breakdown of sanitation, lack of clean water, and the destruction of the health care system have caused deaths from treatable diseases, chronic conditions, and infectious outbreaks (such as cholera, Hepatitis A, and respiratory illnesses).

A study in The Lancet noted that their analysis underestimates the full impact because it "does not account for non-trauma-related deaths resulting from health service disruption, food insecurity, and inadequate water and sanitation."

One analysis suggests the total number of deaths, including indirect deaths, is likely significantly higher than the reported trauma figures.

Natural Deaths in a Normal Year:

It is also important to consider the baseline. Before the war, Gaza had a large, young population, but a typical mortality rate would still result in a number of "natural deaths" (old age, heart disease, cancer).

One analysis estimated that the pre-war natural death rate in Gaza would account for approximately 5,000 deaths per year. These deaths may be included in the broad, unverified lists of total fatalities recorded by the MoH, complicating the data further.

In summary, the number of people dying from natural causes (indirect deaths) exacerbated by the war's conditions (famine, disease, lack of medicine) is not precisely verified but is estimated to be in the thousands and rising, adding significantly to the overall toll beyond the direct trauma deaths.

Furthermore, It should be noted that prior to the 7th 0f October 2023 from classified Israeli military intelligence database Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad had a pre-war strength of approximately 25,000 to 30,000 fighters.

Of those Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad known by name, some 8500 are confirmed as KIA. 

The IDF has estimated that around 17,000 to 20,000+ terrorists have been killed. This figure includes fighters from both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) as well as and other terrorist groups,