How many innocent civilians were verified as being killed and how many died of natural causes in Gaza these past two years?
The verification of casualties in Gaza is exceptionally difficult and highly contentious due to the ongoing conflict, lack of access for independent monitors, and the collapse of the healthcare infrastructure.
Here is the list of sources I referenced in my reseach and as I mention in the Blog the "main source" for many news outlets is the Gaza Ministry of Heath run by the Hamas terrorist regime so I questioned the accuarcy of their information.
The Guardian - www.theguardian.com
Revealed: Israeli military's own data indicates civilian death rate of 83% in Gaza war.
Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC) - aijac.org.au Fact Sheet: Gaza's death toll:
The IDF estimates that, as of January 2025, about 20,000 Hamas combatants have been killed in Gaza.
Henry Jackson Society - henryjacksonsociety.org
Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza
Only 5% of the surveyed media organisations cited numbers released by the Israeli authorities, while 98% cited fatality figures provided by the Hamas-run Gaza ...
The Washington Institute - www.washingtoninstitute.org- Here's the Real Problem with the U.N.'s Revised Gaza Death Toll
It also cannot help assess the legality of individual Israeli strikes or operations. Nor is the claimed death toll a clear undercount: 40 percent of reported
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, OCHA -
www.ochaopt.org-Reported impact snapshot | Gaza Strip (25 March 2025) |
The fatality breakdowns currently cited are those that the MoH in Gaza has fully identified as of 22 March 2025 out of the higher number of casualties they ...
The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
www.lshtm.ac.uk - Gaza: 64,000 deaths due to violence between October 2023 and June 2024, analysis:
The total death toll due to the war is likely to be higher(?) as the analysis does not account for non-trauma related deaths caused by disruption to healthcare, ...
German public state-owned international broadcaster Deutsche Welle -YouTube -www.youtube.com-
New research puts Gaza death toll much higher than reported
The numbers of dead released by the Hamas-run ministry of health have been dismissed by the Israeli government as being exaggerated, but recent research ...
The request for verified numbers of "innocent civilians" killed and those who died of "natural causes" in Gaza over the past two years (predominantly the period since the October 7, 2023 war began) highlights one of the most contentious aspects of casualty reporting, as definitive, independently verified counts are not currently possible for the entire period.
The most commonly cited figures for total Palestinian deaths come from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH), which is run by the Hamas terrorist organization - controlled government.
So how trust worthy are these figures generally used by the UN and other international bodies?
The consensus among major international organizations and neutral analysts is as follows:
The total figure of dead bodies reported by the MoH is likely an accurate baseline for the number of trauma deaths. It represents a massive loss of life that most sources believe is either correct or an undercount.
The civilian-to-combatant ratio and the claim that a specific high percentage are women and children is the least trustworthy aspect of the MoH's reporting. This breakdown is often politically motivated and has been shown to be inconsistent with the MoH's own detailed lists.
In short, the raw number is generally considered plausible, but the demographic breakdown requires external, independent analysis (which often involves comparing the ages and genders of the identified dead to the general population) to determine the actual civilian toll.
Several international organizations and academic studies have attempted to verify, cross-reference, or analyze this data, often leading to different conclusions about the exact number and the civilian-to-combatant ratio.
Here is a breakdown based on the available data from international organizations, academic studies, and reporting:
1. Verified Innocent Civilian Deaths (Trauma-Related)
There is no single, universally agreed-upon, and fully verified total number of innocent civilian deaths due to direct trauma (strikes, gunfire) for the entire conflict period (Oct. 2023 – Dec. 2025). The difficulty lies in independently verifying the combatant status of every adult male killed.
The most widely cited figures come from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH), run by Hamas, but these require external analysis to determine the civilian breakdown.
Sources:
2. Deaths from Natural Causes (Indirect Deaths)
The number of people dying from indirect causes—often referred to as non-trauma-related deaths or excess deaths—is rapidly growing and is not fully included in the main MoH casualty figures.
Estimated Figures for Indirect Deaths:
Famine/Malnutrition:
As of late 2025, reports suggest thousands of people have died from complications related to severe malnutrition, dehydration, and lack of treatment, with figures of 10,000+ cited in some reports. The UN has highlighted that deaths of children due to starvation shame the world and demand urgent action.
Disease and Health Collapse:
The breakdown of sanitation, lack of clean water, and the destruction of the health care system have caused deaths from treatable diseases, chronic conditions, and infectious outbreaks (such as cholera, Hepatitis A, and respiratory illnesses).
A study in The Lancet noted that their analysis underestimates the full impact because it "does not account for non-trauma-related deaths resulting from health service disruption, food insecurity, and inadequate water and sanitation."
It should be noted that "The Lancet" over the years has been reported to dedicate a disproportionate space to articles that criticize Israel and its impact on Palestinian health, while allegedly neglecting to highlight Israeli medical achievements or the context of Hamas's actions (such as the use of hospitals for military purposes or rocket attacks on Israeli civilians).
Natural Deaths in a Normal Year:
It is also important to consider the baseline. Before the war, Gaza had a large, young population, but a typical mortality rate would still result in a number of "natural deaths" (old age, heart disease, cancer).
One analysis estimated that the pre-war natural death rate in Gaza would account for approximately 5,000 deaths per year. These deaths may be included in the broad, unverified lists of total fatalities recorded by the MoH, complicating the data further.
In summary, the number of people dying from natural causes (indirect deaths) exacerbated by the war's conditions (famine, disease, lack of medicine) is not precisely verified but is "estimated" to be in the thousands and rising, adding significantly to the overall toll beyond the direct trauma deaths.
Furthermore, It should be noted that prior to the 7th 0f October 2023 from classified Israeli military intelligence database Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad had a pre-war strength of approximately 25,000 to 30,000 fighters.
Source Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman):
ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) cites this range (25,000 to 30,000) as the "pre-war estimate" for Hamas's military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades.
Of those Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad known by name, some 8500 are confirmed as KIA.
The Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman) verification method: used by the IDF to verify deaths of terrorists used intelligence data, unit reports from the field, cross-referencing names against known militant rosters, and sometimes by physical identification of bodies or captured documents.
Many times the Hamas and PIJ posted "obituaries" lauding the dead.
The IDF has estimated that around 17,000 to 20,000+ terrorists have been killed. This figure includes fighters from both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) as well as and other terrorist groups,
